AGP Executive Report

Venezuela-UN Diplomacy: Acting President Delcy Rodríguez told the UN Venezuela is “being reborn,” thanking the US for resuming ties after the January raid that captured Nicolás Maduro—while she warned the road ahead won’t be easy. US-China Trade: Trump and Xi kick off their second summit of the year in Washington as the trade truce is extended to Jan. 10, with AI, tariffs, rare earths and Taiwan still hanging over talks. Energy & Prices: US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said a diesel export ban “won’t work,” warning it could raise petrol and jet fuel prices—amid political pressure from record diesel costs. Regional Resilience: CAF approved a US$200,000 grant for CDEMA to strengthen disaster-resilient residential construction across the Caribbean. Climate Risk: A new El Niño-linked study warns heat could drive up to 451,000 additional deaths by February, hitting poorer countries hardest. Finance & Markets: FEMSA issued CHF 300m in Swiss francs senior unsecured bonds to improve its cost of debt and flexibility. Security & Courts: A judge will decide by Nov. 6 on whether to dismiss US charges against alleged Uruguayan drug kingpin Sebastián Marset, with jurisdiction a key battleground.

Diesel Shock for Latin America: Mexico is on alert after Trump backs a proposal to ban US diesel exports, raising fears of supply gaps and higher prices for a market that imports about 40% of its diesel from the US. Crime Crackdown: Trump urged Shield of the Americas members to sanction 24 criminal organisations, with coalition governments signaling asset freezes and visa restrictions. Venezuela-US Talks: Trump met interim President Delcy Rodríguez at the UN, discussing energy, mining and security, amid a US-backed oil deal granting long concessions. El Niño Health Warning: A new study warns “super” El Niño heat could drive nearly 451,000 extra heat-related deaths globally by February, with parts of Latin America among hotspots. Rare Earths Push (Brazil): Rare Earths Americas reported initial drill results at its Homer Project in Goiás, pointing to widespread near-surface mineralization. Hurricane Polo (Mexico): Pacific storm Polo intensified into an extremely dangerous major hurricane, with forecasts tracking a possible shift near Mexico’s coast. Cyber Espionage: ESET says China-aligned FamousSparrow expanded in Latin America with a new SparroWocky backdoor targeting governments. Tech & Finance: Behavox added surveillance veteran Rich Ziegenbalg as executive advisor, while a payments piece highlights how cross-border provider “fit” still gets assembled manually.

UN Diplomacy & Venezuela: Reuters reports Trump will meet Venezuela’s interim President Delcy Rodriguez on UN sidelines for the first time since Maduro’s capture, with the delegation pushing to make Venezuela “investable” and focusing on oil and investment talks. Hemispheric Security: The “Shield of the Americas” coalition met at UNGA, with Guyana and other Latin American and Caribbean leaders pledging tighter economic and security cooperation against narco-groups and organized crime. Brazil’s UN Push: Lula opened UNGA urging multilateralism, warning the UN’s credibility is at a low point amid rising conflicts and calling for sovereignty-respecting diplomacy. Colombia’s Role: Colombia’s Vice President Jose Manuel Restrepo joined the Shield meeting, emphasizing democratic institutions after Colombia’s recent election. Business & Markets (LATAM): Genomma Lab announced a quarterly cash dividend in Mexico; Hotel Equities opened Kimpton Tres Ríos All Inclusive in Mexico’s Riviera Maya; and Plugg Technologies said nearshore hiring in LATAM is accelerating for U.S. firms. Trade & Agriculture: Soybean growers urged Trump to protect export stability ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting, warning about China’s retaliatory duties and potential shipping disruptions.

Peru Agribusiness: Hass avocado exports hit 505,377 metric tons in H1 2026, up 6% year-on-year, as Peru pushes market access to 70 destinations and brings more small producers into trade. Digital Payments in LatAm: Kunfupay and EBANX launched Yape On-File in Peru, driving a 46% revenue uplift in four months and reaching 67% of platform processed volume, powered by Peru’s Yape wallet dominance. Energy & Infrastructure: California declared a state of emergency as El Niño strengthens, with ECLAC warning severe impacts could ripple across Latin America’s economy. Regional Diplomacy: Trinidad and Tobago’s PM Kamla Persad-Bissessar is set for high-level UNGA talks, including a meeting with Venezuela’s Delcy Rodríguez to rebuild cooperation on energy, trade, agriculture and security. Logistics & Trade Finance: Guyana’s Pas Cargo secured its first IDB Lab loan, backing logistics and last-mile delivery as the private sector expands. Security & Immigration: A Venezuelan man shot by ICE in Austin is back in hospital and seeks court intervention to block deportation while his case is pending.

AI & Productivity Push: The IDB convened heads of state and tech leaders in New York to back a roadmap for broad, safe AI adoption across Latin America and the Caribbean, with a key warning that gains could lift GDP by 5.1% in a decade but wages may swing widely depending on worker mobility. Regional Growth Outlook: ECLAC warned of low growth and high uncertainty for the region, citing commodity volatility, sticky high interest rates, and weaker global trade, urging more productive investment and formal jobs. Energy & Industry Deals: Halliburton signed MoUs with Eneva and Venezuela’s Wesca to develop new hydrocarbon infrastructure, while TotalEnergies also moved with PDVSA under the 2026 hydrocarbons reform. Cyber-Resilience & Trade Security: The Bahamas launched a ports cybersecurity workshop focused on inter-institutional resilience as ports face new tech-driven vulnerabilities. Migration & Rights Pressure: Reporting says the Trump administration negotiated third-country deportation deals with dozens of countries, sending 25,000+ people with no ties, while in Austin an ICE shooting left a detained Venezuelan man allegedly without surgery and still bleeding. Business Expansion: Colombia’s Vice President launched “Mission Crecer” targeting 6% GDP growth through investment, productivity, and labor formalization. Manufacturing Investment: LANCO plans a new paints and coatings facility in Jamaica, aiming to start construction soon and expand local jobs.

Brazil Monetary Policy: Brazil’s central-bank-linked economists (Focus survey) cut their end-2026 Selic forecast to 13.50%, expecting one more 25-basis-point cut after the latest fifth straight move. Digital Banking Leadership: Nubank named Sarah Wilson Chief Legal Officer, effective Sept. 28, as it pushes AI-led growth and international expansion. Aviation Regulation Shock: Mexico’s aviation industry is alarmed by a proposed 73% cut to AFAC’s 2027 budget, raising fears for safety oversight and airline expansion. Air Cargo Expansion: Swissport is entering Colombia via a majority stake acquisition of Giraldo Hermanos International, aiming to scale cargo and passenger handling. Defense Exports Watch: South Korea’s defense firms are using Peru as a Latin America hub, but critics want stronger state-backed export packages. Energy Project Milestone: TotalEnergies’ GranMorgu offshore project in Suriname remains on track for first oil in mid-2028. Corporate Aviation Product Moves: Abra Group (Avianca/Gol) is rolling out its Insignia long-haul suite on Avianca’s 787s, betting on premium demand. Tech & Trade: IQAX says it has surpassed one million electronic bills of lading, pushing digital trade infrastructure across fragmented systems. Security & Compliance: Kiteworks will moderate a “Verify, Don’t Assume” panel at the National Cyber Summit 2026 on how agencies should validate vendor security claims.

Regional Sports & Investment: Brazil hosts the 2026 CSV Men’s South American Volleyball Championship in Rio (Sept. 15-20), with Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Colombia and Venezuela chasing Olympic and World Cup qualification, while FIVB’s Empowerment Projects Platform is funding coaching, equipment and know-how to narrow the gap between traditional powers and rising teams. Trade & Energy Links: France and Canada move closer on defense, energy and business after Macron and PM Mark Carney meet in Saint Pierre and Miquelon, signaling a Europe pivot amid strained US ties. LNG Contracting: Sempra’s infrastructure unit locks a 20-year LNG sales and purchase deal with Petrobras for about 0.8 million tonnes annually from Port Arthur Phase 2 in Texas, boosting long-term visibility for both sides. Oil & Investment Watch: ExxonMobil nears a preliminary return to Venezuela talks with PDVSA, potentially reviving interest in Orinoco heavy-oil projects after nearly two decades. Immigration Enforcement Fallout: An ICE agent shot a man in Austin, Texas, as the Trump-era push for tougher immigration enforcement continues to spark local backlash and scrutiny. Climate & Data: A new focus on pollution and climate policy highlights how weak or inconsistent environmental data can distort regulation and green-finance decisions across Latin America.

Brazil Politics & Security: Brazil’s intelligence agency ABIN warns the U.S. could intervene in the Oct. 4 presidential election, raising risks of trade tensions and a rupture with China, according to a report sent to Brazil’s top electoral and justice bodies. Energy & Industry: Chinese NEVs are gaining ground in South America’s ride-hailing market as drivers chase lower operating costs amid high oil prices. Urban Economy: Chile’s cost-of-living squeeze is hitting everyday staples like the completo as recession fears grow; the central bank cut its 2026 growth forecast and unemployment and inflation pressures remain elevated. Sports & Talent: China dominated day one of swimming at the Asian Games, led by 13-year-old Yu Zidi, signaling a new generation to watch. City Competitiveness: Paraguay’s Asunción jumped 22 spots in the Global Cities Index 2026, ranking 17th in South America. Guatemala Governance: A new look at Guatemala’s democracy dilemma highlights widening frustration with the pace of rule-of-law reforms.

Retail Expansion: Castillo’s Supermarkets plans a new White Center location, taking over the former Bartell Drugs site and adding a full carnicería, panadería, hot foods counter, and Latin American produce. Diplomacy & Trade Links: Guatemala opened an honorary consulate in Utah, with officials saying a full-service consulate could follow within 1–2 years. Defense & Security: The U.S. is reportedly redeploying MQ-9 Reaper drones from Africa to South America to support operations against drug trafficking. Energy Investment: TotalEnergies’ offshore Suriname project is on track for first output in mid-2028, after partners have spent about half the planned investment. Finance & Payments: Bolivia’s Toyota distributor TOYOSA will accept Tether’s USDT via BitGo Bank & Trust, signaling growing stablecoin use in retail purchases. Tech & Commerce: Amazon invested over $20M in Colombia’s Rappi, deepening its Latin America delivery and AWS ties. Sports Business: MLS set records in 2026 for transfer spending and revenue, underscoring its push to buy young talent with resale potential. Governance & Rights: Honduras is urged to comply with Inter-American Court rulings protecting Garifuna land rights.

Bolivia IMF Deal: Bolivia’s Congress approved a $1.9B IMF loan, and President Rodrigo Paz moved to end diesel subsidies immediately—aimed at stabilizing reserves amid high inflation and weak growth. Urban Tech & Mobility: Buenos Aires published rules for pilot tests of Level 4 autonomous cars on public roads, with permits tied to zones, times, weather, and safety oversight. Aviation & Trade Links: Swissport began handling LATAM Cargo flights at Cape Town and Johannesburg, boosting direct freight capacity to São Paulo for perishables, pharma, and high-value goods. Mental Health Crisis: Argentina faces rising suicide rates, with new public pressure in Buenos Aires calling for better mental health funding and prevention through open conversation. Climate Impact on Education: UNICEF reports climate hazards disrupted schooling for 374,377 students in Colombia, with drought highlighted as a key driver tied to El Niño risks. Sports Governance: UEFA and CONCACAF urged FIFA to release $2.1B from reserves, demanding $10M payments to each federation as they push to oust Infantino. Tourism & Connectivity: Jamaica and Saudi Arabia explored new air links to expand tourism, business travel, and cargo between the Caribbean and the Middle East.

Venezuela-U.S. Energy and Diplomacy: Trump will meet interim President Delcy Rodriguez in New York on Tuesday, the first in-person meeting since Washington ousted Maduro, with an energy deal signed last month likely back on the agenda. U.S. Drug Policy Shift: The U.S. removed Venezuela from its “failed demonstrably” anti-drug list, citing cooperation with the interim government, while keeping it on broader drug-transit/producing categories. Security Escalation Watch: Reports say the U.S. plans to relocate MQ-9 Reaper drones from Africa to South America to expand surveillance and strike capacity against drug trafficking. Brazil Crime Crackdown: Lula unveiled a Rio pilot plan to expand federal-state-municipal operations targeting organized crime along major highways and logistics corridors ahead of the October election. Bolivia IMF Deal: Bolivia’s lawmakers approved a $1.9B IMF financing package under a 36-month program, including subsidy cuts and exchange-rate flexibility. AI and Governance: EY says many firms have AI governance policies but still struggle to align urgent deployments and detect unauthorized agent activity. Logistics Costs: FedEx announced demand surcharges and higher international fees affecting shipments to and from Latin America and the Caribbean. HIV Access Deal: Gilead and PAHO agreed to expand lenacapavir procurement access across 14 Latin America and Caribbean countries. FIFA Power Struggle: UEFA and CONCACAF pressed FIFA to release $2.1B to federations and demanded answers over Infantino’s private-investor plan.

El Salvador Energy Sales: MPC Caribbean Clean Energy agreed to sell its indirect stake in the 5MW San Isidro solar plant to Potenza Holdings for about US$3.27M, with closing expected by Q1 2027. Colombia Logistics Deal: DHL Supply Chain will buy Open Market, adding 21 warehouses, 13 cross-docking sites and a transport fleet, plus about 4,100 jobs, to expand specialized healthcare and life-sciences logistics. Venezuela Oil Oversight: U.S. Democratic senators asked for details on where money from Venezuelan oil sales is held in a Treasury-controlled account, citing transparency and safeguards concerns. Argentina Malvinas Pressure: Argentina sent Congress a bill to punish unauthorized resource exploitation around the Falklands/Malvinas, escalating oil-linked legal and financial pressure on companies. Regional Climate Risk: New reporting highlights record ocean heat tied to El Niño, raising stakes for marine ecosystems and weather-dependent economies across Latin America. Business & Trade: Indonesia’s INA-LAC mission in Chile (Oct. 1-2) is drawing 20+ firms across energy, mining, food, pharma and more, as Latin America seeks deeper investment ties.

US–Latin America Security: The Trump administration reallocated $52M in foreign military financing from Europe/Mideast to Panama, Peru, Ecuador and Colombia, aiming to back “narcoterrorism” and protect the Panama Canal. Organized Crime Crackdown: Europol-backed action dismantled an ’Ndrangheta-linked cocaine and money-laundering pipeline in Brazil, with seven arrests and seized assets. Cybersecurity: ESET says China-aligned FamousSparrow shifted heavily toward Latin America, deploying a new SparroWocky backdoor and targeting governments across multiple countries. Public Health & Pharma Access: AHF hailed a Gilead–PAHO deal to expand lenacapavir HIV prevention access across 14 Latin American countries, calling it a win for civil society. Aviation & Tourism: British Airways will boost Latin America capacity by 25% in summer 2027 and add a daily London–Buenos Aires route; Jamaica also plans stronger GCC air connectivity. Energy & Climate Risk: A UN weather report warns the water cycle is more erratic, with “reserves” being depleted—raising stakes for drought-hit regions.

Energy Policy: Chile is weighing E10 ethanol-gasoline blending to cut fuel supply costs by about $107 million a year as oil prices strain public finances. Climate & Water Security: The UN’s weather agency warns abnormal water supplies are becoming the norm, with 2025 among the driest river-flow years in 35 years and “water savings accounts” (groundwater, glaciers, soil moisture) being depleted. Corporate & Legal: ATOME PLC has filed a Notice of Dispute and plans arbitration against Paraguay under the UK-Paraguay investment treaty over its Villeta low-carbon fertiliser project. Infrastructure Leadership: KBR names James Duncan to lead its Infrastructure practice across the Global South, with an initial focus on MENA and expansion into Latin America. Healthcare & Tech Markets: New forecasts point to rapid growth in mental health apps, surgical robots, and healthcare cold-chain logistics—signals of where investment and demand are heading. Travel Payments: Conferma expands its “ditch the fax” push, switching virtual card delivery off fax in more than 100 extra markets, including parts of South America.

Venezuela Energy Reset: The U.S. removed Venezuela from its drug-control blacklist after more than 20 years, while Washington also backed new oil and gold deals under a G20-linked push—signaling a fresh wave of investment interest in the Orinoco Belt and beyond. Oil & Investment Pipeline: ExxonMobil is reportedly in talks to re-enter Venezuela, and Continental Resources signed an Orinoco heavy-oil MoU with PDVSA, adding to a broader scramble by major firms to restart projects. Food Security Shock: El Niño drought risks leaving 16 million people in Latin America without enough food, with Central America’s Dry Corridor among the hardest hit. Regional Security Funding: The U.S. is reallocating $52 million in military aid toward Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and Panama to support anti-drug and “Shield of the Americas” priorities. Finance & Trade: The U.S. DFC approved over $8 billion in new investments aimed at boosting exports and energy/digital infrastructure across Ukraine, Jordan and Africa, including trade financing tied to South America. Business Expansion: Nubank launched in the U.S. via a partner-bank model ahead of its full banking license path, while DHL Supply Chain is expanding in Colombia via acquisition. Mining & Rights: Canada faces renewed pressure over Guatemala’s Escobal mine after Indigenous groups rejected consent, raising the stakes for Pan American Silver’s future.

Green Hydrogen Push: Black Star Group is setting up a dedicated green hydrogen division inside its R&D, targeting pilot projects first in Spain before expanding to Europe and Latin America. Food Trade Credibility: A Dominican economist warns that rice rules tied to DR-CAFTA could weaken the country’s bid to join the OECD, arguing the issue is about honoring commitments. Venezuela Recovery Strain: After deadly earthquakes, Venezuela’s seismology capacity is still crippled, with a key GPS sensor missing and monitoring stations largely nonfunctional. Lithium Progress: American Lithium says its Falchani pilot plant in Peru is fully installed and operating, with lithium extraction averaging 88.7% in tests. Logistics Expansion in Colombia: DHL Supply Chain will buy Open Market to grow healthcare and temperature-controlled logistics, adding 21 warehouses and 4,100 employees. Digital Growth in Brazil: iFood plans to invest 24 billion reais through March 2027, boosting tech, new categories, and iFood Pago. Entrepreneurship in Puerto Rico: A new snapshot shows small-business growth but limited grant support and persistent barriers like financial skills and high startup friction. Markets & Costs: Grain prices are rising as El Niño-linked weather risks and geopolitical disruptions tighten supply expectations.